Euro 2025 preview: why England can win
...and why they might not, with the tournament getting underway on Wednesday
Hello and welcome to WOMEN OF STEEL – hoping to have a double newsletter drop for you this week, as I’m expecting some news from United on player contracts as the calendar ticks over to July. So I’ll cover that as it comes out, but in the meantime, let’s talk about England’s attempt to defend their European Championships title, with the 2025 tournament kicking off on Wednesday.
I’m very excited for this tournament, not least for the memories it brings back from 2022. England play their first match of a tough group stage on Saturday evening, against France, and here I’m going to lay out why the Lionesses could go back-to-back – and what might stand in their way.
Why England can win Euro 2025
They’ve done it before. Sarina Wiegman won the Euros in 2017 (with the Netherlands) and 2022; she also guided England to the 2024 World Cup final. The majority of the team that is likely to line up against France on Saturday will have been involved in a meaningful capacity in at least one of the last two tournaments. At the same time, it’s not a case of one last dance for an ageing team – the average age of the squad is 25.5, with only Lucy Bronze (33) and Alex Greenwood (31) over the age of 30. Wiegman is a battle-hardened, proven winner – and so are most of her players.
A clutch of key figures – Greenwood, Lauren James, Lauren Hemp and Georgia Stanway – have all returned from serious injuries in time for the tournament. Leah Williamson and Beth Mead both missed the World Cup with ACL injuries but have now completed a full season back at peak fitness and form (winning the Champions League with Arsenal). While James’ fitness is clearly still being built back up – I’m not expecting her to start the first game – the rest look good to go and may even have benefitted from a mental break.
On the injury front, England are pretty clear. There was a momentary scare in yesterday’s friendly win over Jamaica when Mead’s leg bent at a distressing angle in a late challenge, but she picked herself up and knocked in a goal a few minutes later as if to emphasise that she was fine. I won’t be shocked if someone picks up a problem during the tournament – for most of the squad it’s a condensed competition at the end of a gruelling club season – but for now, they’re in good shape.
England’s attack looks loaded. Alessia Russo just won the WSL’s Golden Boot. Lauren James is one of the best footballers in the world. Hemp staked a claim for that accolade at the last World Cup and led the WSL’s assist charts despite missing six months of the season with injury. Mead has picked up where she left off internationally following her return. Youngster Aggie Beever-Jones has scored four goals in her last two appearances and exudes huge “Russo at Euro 2022” vibes about her potential as a game-changing, goalscoring sub. And Chloe Kelly’s January move to Arsenal could scarcely have gone better.
The hardest part for Wiegman will be getting the right combination of those six (19-year-old Michelle Agyemang is a wildcard pick, but scored this banger 41 seconds into her England debut in April). But Hemp – Russo – James with the potential for Kelly to turn in a David Beckham-esque showing on the right wing as she did against Real Madrid a few months ago, or Mead drifting into a number 10 role to unlock a packed defence, is extremely exciting. And I haven’t even mentioned Ella Toone, the ultimate big-game player, who returned to goalscoring form for her country yesterday.
This is an England side that can attack from the flanks, can bombard the box, can counter with pace, and can be a threat from the centre of the pitch. And if all else fails, they can give the ball to Lauren James and hope she can win a game by herself. There’s a lot of flexibility, and a lot of depth to whistle up off the bench.
Why they might not
Talented as this England side is, there’s something a little… off about the lead-up to the tournament. Senior players Fran Kirby and Mary Earps were clearly told by Sarina Wiegman that they either weren’t going to start, or weren’t making the squad – both promptly retired. Commanding centre-back Millie Bright withdrew from selection, citing the need for a physical and mental break from the game.
All three are big personalities – Bright was captain at the last World Cup – and the sudden nature of the retirements were eyebrow-raising. If things go badly wrong for England at this tournament – and I don’t think they will, but if – then I’m expecting to hear some anonymously-sourced dirty laundry aired in the media over the next few months.
Earps’ retirement decision will surely have been motivated by Wiegman indicating that Chelsea’s Hannah Hampton will be her number one this summer: Hampton is an excellent keeper, although for better or worse she lacks Earps’ you-shall-not-pass rock-star brashness. This will also be Hampton’s first tournament as England’s number one – and behind her the backup situation is pretty thin (Khiara Keating only played 12 league games for Man City this year; Anna Moorhouse is experienced but untested internationally). I think Hampton will thrive behind what should still be a solid defence, but it’s not a guarantee and an injury or red card could be disastrous.
In terms of outfield depth: the Lionesses look strong on paper, although none of it is particularly tournament-tested. Grace Clinton and Jess Park should have impactful roles, but it’s a bit of an unknown. Wiegman has taken a bit of a risk in midfield, with only five players named, one of whom – Stanway – has barely played due to injury. In central defence, Greenwood and Williamson are top-level players but their understudies – Esme Morgan, Lotte Wubben-Moy, Maya Le Tissier – aren’t yet at the same level. If one of those two is unavailable for any length of time, it could be a serious issue.
Left-back remains if not a problem, then a question. Cast your mind back to the last Euros where Wiegman played striker Rachel Daly there throughout the tournament (successfully!) due to lack of legitimate options. She now has Jess Carter and Niamh Charles to choose from, and while both are solid, it’s potentially still the weakest spot in England’s lineup.
I think Carter probably gets the nod – she started yesterday and was a regular at the World Cup – but she’s really a centre-back, and a right-footed one at that. Charles – also right-footed – is more accustomed to playing the position, and is a notch better on the ball, but has stagnated a little this season. Two years ago I thought she’d have the left-back spot locked down for England by now, but she hasn’t taken that next step. I like Carter’s no-nonsense defending and the fact she’s in midseason form with Gotham FC in the NWSL, but it’s still probably the only position where England don’t have an elite option to call on.
The biggest problem, though, lies outside the England camp: Spain. The world champions are arguably better than ever, and strong favourites to add the Euros to their trophy cabinet. Name-checking Alexia Putellas, Aitana Bonmati, Esther González and Salma Paralluelo only scratches the surface of how much talent this side has, and Claudia Pina – who I’d happily put a few quid on as a value pick for Golden Boot – is having a breakthrough season for club and country.
England did split a pair of Nations League games with Spain recently, although the most recent game – a 2-1 defeat in which Pina scored twice off the bench – was ominously one-sided despite the final score. Anyone who watched the Spanish men’s team dominate internationally around a decade ago will be familiar with how the 2025 women’s team play: lots of possession, lots of pressing, lots of movement and lots of skill. It’s a nightmare to deal with. To win Euro 2025, England will have to either beat Spain – or hope someone else does it for them.
And it’s not just Spain that England will have to overcome, which brings me to the Lionesses’ first game of the tournament on Saturday. The 16-team format of the Euros often means the bar of quality is raised higher than 32-team tournaments (or 48, cheers FIFA) but even so, England have been drawn in a rough group. I’ll talk about Wales and Netherlands when those games come round, but it’s France first – a team just a tick behind England to win the tournament in most bookmakers’ odds.
Coach Laurent Bonadei has ditched some established names, including centre-back Wendie Renard, in a bid to refresh the culture of the side. The history of France’s football teams – men and women – suggests that’s a risky ploy, but so far so good as Bonadei’s side won all six Nations League games and are packed with attacking ability.
It’ll be a real test first up for England’s back line and goalkeeper – a far harder start than the previous two tournaments where the Lionesses eked out disjointed 1-0 wins over Austria and Haiti. Marie-Antoinette Katoto, Sandy Baltimore and Kadidiatou Diani is a triple prong of pain at international level: all three extremely explosive players. I mentioned left-back Selma Bacha last week, and England will need to be wary of her threat from set-pieces in particular.
England, of course, aren’t exactly short of good players themselves – this should be a good match-up. I’m hoping that an open game will play into England’s hands (in contrast to those other two tournament openers), or at the very worst both sides find themselves fairly happy with a draw to start off. In a tournament where only the top two go through, a point apiece would lump pressure on Netherlands to win at least one of their games against England and France – which again could play into the Lionesses’ hands.
I’ve somehow talked myself into being slightly nervous for this one. There is also the upside of England needing to be right at it from the first game, and a win would be huge in terms of being able to manage their way through the rest of the group stage (not to get ahead of ourselves, but turning the final game against Wales into a dead rubber would be highly advantageous given England would need to play six games in 23 days if they are to reach the final).
I’ll sign off there and be back with more on the Lionesses after their game with France. Thanks for reading, and come on England.
Great work Ben, looking forward to follow it through the tournament.