The Big Preview: Sheffield United v Portsmouth
Reasons to be optimistic, pessimistic and players to watch in the biggest game of the season for United Women this Sunday
Reader, we start this week with an apology, for I did not get a chance to watch and write about the previous week’s narrow defeat to league leaders Birmingham City. Much as I wanted to, especially to see Arsenal loanee Maddy Earl’s first start, I’ve run out of time as there’s a big game – the game, really – now looming, and that’s what I want to write about today.
It didn’t help that the Birmingham game had its live stream cancelled due to technical problems, and then much later I saw City’s winning goal. And I’m still kind of offended by it to be honest, in an Austin Powers who-throws-a-shoe way – seriously Shannon Cooke, who shoots from there? Honestly.
0.01xG? Should bloody well think so. Let’s talk about this weekend’s game.
Portsmouth (H), Sunday 2nd March, 13:00 kick-off
Right, this is the big one. At time of writing United have shifted almost 3,000 tickets for this, making it by far the biggest crowd of the season, so I’m going to assume more than a few people are going to be watching United Women for the first time this campaign, possibly ever. Portsmouth at home:
Why it matters
Here are the bottom two places of the Championship table heading into the weekend:
There is one relegation spot out of the Championship; United have spent the whole season lurking distressingly close to it. But, a win on Sunday would open up a seven-point gap on Portsmouth – who have yet to win a game – which would surely be insurmountable with five matches to play.
A loss at the Lane and… we’ll all be holding our breath for those last few months.
United, if you somehow missed it, had a so-badly-handled-it’s-almost-funny (spoiler: it’s not funny) summer, and it feels like it’s taken them more-or-less six months to fully stabilise as a consequence. Relegation would be an utter disaster. It also wouldn’t be ideal for Portsmouth, but at least they’d be able to console themselves in the fact this is their first season at this level, whereas United were looking much more upwardly-mobile 12 months ago.
As it stands, we look like benefitting from the sad situation at Reading which led to this season’s Championship only featuring one relegation spot instead of two. Survival at least gives us the chance to right the wrongs of last summer and progress as a club.
There is a little bit of punch to Pompey, who really are in do-or-die mode as they search for that first win. They also have third-bottom Blackburn to come – as do United – but realistically need to win both games and hope United don’t get more than a point the rest of the way.
Reasons to be optimistic
Bluntly, United are better than Portsmouth. It’s there in the league table. The points total may be paltry but it’s still 3x that which Pompey have been able to stitch together. The goal difference is also significantly better for the Blades, to the extent where it would take a miracle to overhaul in the rest of the season. United’s -14 GD, while clearly Not Good, is currently better than the teams that finished 9-12th in last season’s Championship.
Portsmouth have the worst defence in the league by a wide margin, shipping 40 goals (almost 3 per game). The next-leakiest defence, Sunderland, have allowed 24. United are on 23, which is actually only three more than third-placed Durham.
Advanced stats back up Portsmouth’s porous performances so far, with Pompey allowing an expected goals against (xGA) of 2.03 per game (via footystats). United’s isn’t miles better, at 1.84, but it is better.
Portsmouth are also the league’s lowest scorers, which isn’t an ideal combination. They’re averaging 0.5 goals per game so far. Again, United aren’t much better – 0.64 goals per game – but they are better.
Finally, the Blades look (famous last words) like they’re piecing together a fully-fit, functioning side. Jade Bailey, Abbie Lafayette and Alyssa Aherne all made an appearance at Birmingham as part of building back to full availability – Bailey has also just returned from international duty. January signings Issy Hobson, Maddy Earl and Connie Scofield are all locked in as starters or regular subs. Striker Jacqui Hand bagged her first goal in her last Bramall Lane appearance. There is a sense of it “coming together”, hopefully just in time to ensure that the end result if another season at this level.
Reasons to be concerned
United and Portsmouth have met already this season, and it ended 1-1. United held the lead into the second half of that game but ended it completely on the back foot and were the first team to fail to beat Portsmouth in eight attempts up to that point, which is admittedly somewhat troubling. A repeat result on Sunday would undoubtedly suit United more than the visitors, but it would also leave the door open.
United also haven’t won at home this season, although they were minutes away from shocking Newcastle last month and also held promotion-chasing Durham to a highly-creditable draw last time out. In the main, they’ve become competitive at home and have been a bit unfortunate not to pick up an extra point or three against much better teams.
Finally, while Portsmouth are the lowest-scoring side in the league, their underlying numbers are better than United’s. They average 1.25 expected goals per 90 minutes, compared to United’s league-low 0.87. They also take 9.4 shots per game on average, which dwarfs United’s 5.9 shots per game (again, league-low).
Players to watch
The stage is set for United’s top-scorer, Maria Farrugia, who has now gone a surprisingly long time without a league goal – her last one coming against Portsmouth themselves, back in November (she has scored three times since, in the cups, and hit the woodwork more times than I can remember). Fresh off winning her 50th cap for Malta this week, everything I’ve seen of Farrugia this season gives me the vibe that the bigger the occasion, the more determined she is to make her mark.
The Blades’ defence has undoubtedly tightened up since skipper Satara Murray returned to the team, and as United look for what would be a priceless first clean sheet of the season, she’ll have a big role to play – as will keeper Sian Rogers, who is having a very good season.
Connie Scofield had a superb debut in midfield in United’s last home game and can hopefully have the beating of former Blades skipper Sophie Barker, who she’ll likely be sharing similar areas of the pitch with. And one wildcard pick for this game: I like the potential of Fallon Connolly-Jackson getting the opportunity to run at the visiting defence. With Esther Morgan starting at left wingback at Birmingham, and Abbie Lafayette back to fitness, Connolly-Jackson will probably start on the bench – but I like the idea of her getting on for a late burst at tired legs.
I’m really looking forward to this one. The Championship has been so top-heavy this season – with United on the wrong end of that scale – that actual winnable games have been so few and far between. The Blades have given a few of the top sides a good fight on occasion, especially at home, and now have their best chance of a home win of the campaign. Come on you Blades. Back next week.
Nice to have some jeopardy for once